Ranked: The World’s Most Vulnerable Countries to Fertilizer Crunch

China, one of the largest exporters of key fertilizers, is moving to restrict outbound shipments to protect its domestic market, according to multiple industry sources.

At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran are casting uncertainty over shipping routes from the Persian Gulf, a critical hub for fertilizer exports, particularly nitrogen-based products.

Today’s visualization shows the countries that are most vulnerable to these supply shocks.

This is because they depend on these two sources for their product imports.

Ethiopia is the most vulnerable, with roughly 72% of its fertilizer imports coming from China.
More than half of Sudan’s fertilizer imports by sea (about 54%) originated from the Gulf.
Countries in Southeast Asia are more exposed to China’s export decisions. African nations (including Sudan, Tanzania, and Somalia) are more dependent on shipments from the Persian Gulf.

Some countries (such as Thailand, Sri Lanka, New Zealand, and Australia) depend on these two sources for fertilizer supply.