Americans Are Shopping on TikTok at Unexpected Rate, Data Shows

TikTok Shop did not exist in the United States three years ago.

By 2026, it is projected to outsell Target, Best Buy, Costco, and Kroger individually in U.S. ecommerce.

Based on data from eMarketer’s November 2025 forecast, the infographic above focuses on projected sales for TikTok Shop retail e-commerce up to next year.

According to The Wall Street Journal, TikTok Shop generated $4.9 billion in U.S. sales in the first quarter of 2026 alone, nearly doubling from the same period a year earlier.

The eMarketer forecast, published in November 2025, projected full-year 2026 U.S. TikTok Shop retail e-commerce sales of $23.41 billion.

A $4.9 billion Q1, in retail’s weakest seasonal quarter, implies an annual pace that could approach or exceed that forecast before the higher-volume second half of the year arrives.

TikTok Shop generated $4.9 billion in U.S. sales in Q1 2026 alone, nearly doubling year-over-year.
It suggests the full-year eMarketer forecast of $23.41 billion may already be conservative
The platform went from $1.50 billion in its first U.S. year (2023) to a projected $28.56 billion by 2027. TikTok Shop now commands 22.8% of all U.S. social commerce in 2026.