Where Data Tells the Story
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IATA sharply revised its outlook for the global airline industry between December 2025 and June 2026. Its forecast for 2026 net profit fell from $41 billion to $23 billion—a $18 billion or 44% cut. At the same time, forecast revenue rose from $1.053 trillion to $1.165 trillion, an increase of $112 billion or 10.6%. The contradiction reflects costs rising faster than sales: IATA now expects 2026 operating expenses to increase 13% to $1.117 trillion amid a 70% rise in jet-fuel prices and Middle East disruption. The forecast net margin fell from 3.9% to 2.0%, while forecast net profit per passenger fell from $7.90 to $4.50. The passenger forecast edged down from 5.2 billion to 5.1 billion. All figures are IATA industry-wide forecasts in U.S. dollars, not results for an individual airline. Forecasts can change again as fuel prices, fares, traffic and airspace disruption change.